Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2D 0x2d1d…9cb4 other 182 markets active 1d ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,415 (-5%) realized −$1,287 · open −$128
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate64%95W / 53L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,052now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$670
14 days−$670
30 days−$700
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$40
other 27% −$1,318
politics 12% −$81
finance 11% +$283
culture 11% +$32
crypto 6% −$206
sports 3% −$445
tech 1% −$16
economics 1% +$19
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +1.2% -8.4% 56% 15% -19.0%
≤30d 51 -2.9% -12.2% 53% 18% -17.5%
≤90d 80 -3.5% -12.7% 60% 24% -12.2%
all 148 -4.0% -13.2% 64% 29% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 29% -14.9%
10% -21.5% 17% -23.0%
15% -29.1% 7% -30.5%
20% -36.0% 6% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$72 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$1,052
Realized−$1,287
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses95 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions34
Markets (closed)148 / 182
History coverage165d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $689 $566 −$123 (-18%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 77¢ 95¢ $80 $99 +$19 (+23%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 71¢ 61¢ $100 $85 −$15 (-15%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? No 91¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 87¢ 100¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 85¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? No 91¢ 76¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 31¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $121 −$59 -49%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $17 −$14 -80%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 14 $4,508 −$266 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $656 −$276 -42%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$31 +596%
Will Zohran Mamdani stream on Twitch again by June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $20 +$2 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? Jun 13 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -94%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $481 +$33 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -69%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $28 −$28 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $85 −$69 -81%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $86 −$22 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $141 −$41 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $360 +$45 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $100 +$19 +19%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $435 +$117 +27%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $122 −$122 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $114 +$7 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $100 −$30 -30%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $10 −$1 -15%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $20 −$2 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $44 32h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $62 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 37¢ $62 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $121 2d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $101 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 12¢ $6 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 93¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $490 3d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL Yes 72¢ $488 3d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY Yes 74¢ $500 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 17¢ $37 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 21¢ $46 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 30¢ $131 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 19¢ $166 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 4d
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 87¢ $15 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? SELL Yes $0 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 57¢ $21 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $411 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 21¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 27¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 13¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,051.57 · official $1,051.58 (match) · 614 history records