Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:43:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d1c…966a sports 402 markets active 2d ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$91 (-6%) realized −$90 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%214W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$57
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$3
crypto 8% −$49
other 4% −$58
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -28.8% -35.6% 33% 33% -61.7%
≤30d 113 -1.0% -10.4% 52% 51% -13.5%
≤90d 231 -8.2% -16.9% 48% 46% -11.1%
all 398 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 50% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 50% -15.7%
10% -19.0% 46% -23.8%
15% -26.8% 41% -31.1%
20% -34.0% 38% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$90
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses214 / 184
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)398 / 402
History coverage225d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 398 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees No 52¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees No 55¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $1 +$1 +74%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $3 +$5 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +26%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 18 $5 +$3 +70%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho Jun 18 $5 +$4 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $5 +$3 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Lo Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Texas Rangers vs. Kan Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 +$7 +146%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals v Jun 10 $3 +$3 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $3 +$3 +114%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ta Jun 10 $10 +$3 +33%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 +$4 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5 +$5 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 +$9 +86%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwi Jun 09 $1 +$1 +85%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $4 +$2 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 57¢ $1 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $5 6d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. BUY No 54¢ $5 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 29¢ $3 6d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $5 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 7d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $2 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $3 9d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 59¢ $5 9d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. BUY No 55¢ $5 9d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 47¢ $5 9d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v BUY No 56¢ $5 9d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Ho BUY No 53¢ $5 9d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $5 11d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $3 11d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 42¢ $3 11d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $5 11d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Ka BUY No 52¢ $5 12d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Ne BUY Yes 52¢ $5 12d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $3 12d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 52¢ $5 12d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 53¢ $5 12d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $5 12d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $5 12d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 41¢ $3 12d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $10 12d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 52¢ $5 15d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 44¢ $5 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.66 · official $20.66 (match) · 843 history records