Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d1b…da00
crypto · 20 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$242 -77%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$244 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$7
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage96d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 4 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 +$1 (+17%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Down 51¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Down 51¢ 51¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Down 51¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 10? Up 31¢ $244 $0 −$244 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 53¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 50¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Up 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Up 51¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 49¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4AM ET Apr 09 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 4AM ET Mar 23 $12 +$1 +12%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $246 −$244 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 79% −$243
crypto 21% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -33.9% -40.2% 38% 31% -16.6%
≤30d 13 -33.9% -40.2% 38% 31% -16.6%
≤90d 15 -27.4% -34.3% 47% 40% -9.6%
all 16 -32.0% -38.5% 44% 38% -81.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.5% 38% -81.6%
10% -44.3% 25% -83.3%
15% -49.7% 25% -84.9%
20% -54.6% 25% -86.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.41 · official $7.41 (match) · 30 history records