Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d1b…f055 sports 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$906 (+1%) realized +$564 · open +$342
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%83W / 171L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$1,358est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2,275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$964
7 days−$382
14 days−$1,911
30 days−$2,298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$7,427
other 37% −$6,250
world 9% −$387
economics 3% −$833
crypto 2% +$118
politics 1% −$412
culture 0% −$269
tech 0% −$106
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +17.9% +6.7% 18% 18% -16.6%
≤30d 104 -5.0% -14.1% 42% 39% -16.5%
≤90d 173 -4.3% -13.4% 38% 35% +5.8%
all 254 -12.1% -20.5% 33% 29% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 29% -10.6%
10% -28.1% 26% -19.2%
15% -35.0% 20% -27.0%
20% -41.4% 14% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$168 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$2,275
Realized+$564
Unrealized+$342
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses83 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$1,358
Open positions3
Markets (closed)254 / 268
History coverage196d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $942 $856 −$85 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $687 $767 +$80 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $304 $651 +$347 (+114%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $179 −$163 -91%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $285 −$209 -73%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,013 −$644 -32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 20 $204 +$411 +201%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $233 −$41 -18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $112 −$4 -4%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $875 −$257 -29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 18 $204 −$58 -28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Jun 18 $241 +$996 +414%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $255 −$123 -48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026- Jun 14 $307 −$291 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $720 −$41 -6%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $213 +$170 +80%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,215 +$888 +73%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $41 −$6 -14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $158 +$12 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $200 −$10 -5%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $669 −$13 -2%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 09 $551 −$355 -64%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $326 −$326 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $449 −$449 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $141 −$141 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 +$50 +50%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $504 +$154 +30%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $501 +$25 +5%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) Jun 06 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $367 −$68 -18%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $202 −$16 -8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $203 −$165 -81%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $71 +$147 +206%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) Jun 06 $101 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $76 −$37 -49%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $302 +$120 +40%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 06 $154 −$154 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs BBL Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 06 $133 −$133 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $154 +$30 +19%
LoL: CCG Esports vs Conviction - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX (BO5) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Clos Jun 05 $122 +$109 +89%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $404 +$185 +46%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $565 −$45 -8%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $193 −$134 -70%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $151 +$63 +42%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $204 +$99 +48%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $131 −$53 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Aurora Gaming 1¢ $17 14m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 7¢ $62 24m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 21¢ $118 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 8¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 10¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 32¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 43¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $152 1h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $46 2h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $14 2h
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $898 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 11h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $129 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $34 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $92 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $737 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $74 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $114 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 48¢ $192 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 45¢ $51 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $182 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 35¢ $108 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 20¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $102 24h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $293 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 33¢ $204 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,274.66 · official $2,263.82 (match) · 1522 history records