Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d18…2365 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$646 (+6%) realized +$646 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%24W / 30L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$188est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$119
14 days−$113
30 days+$799
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$860
crypto 1% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.3% -23.4% 42% 37% -17.0%
≤30d 54 -12.1% -20.4% 44% 37% +4.0%
≤90d 54 -12.1% -20.4% 44% 37% +4.0%
all 54 -12.1% -20.4% 44% 37% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 37% +4.0%
10% -28.1% 33% -5.9%
15% -35.0% 30% -15.0%
20% -41.4% 22% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$59 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$646
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses24 / 30
Est. fees paid−$188
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage24d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 20 $383 +$44 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $12 −$3 -23%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 Jun 20 $113 −$97 -86%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $104 −$32 -30%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $60 +$38 +63%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 Jun 20 $198 −$48 -24%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 19 $91 +$70 +78%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 18 $67 +$24 +36%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $36 −$21 -58%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $17 −$17 -98%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $26 −$21 -80%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $55 −$31 -56%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 16 $52 −$51 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $23 −$18 -80%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $28 +$21 +74%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$17 +69%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $74 −$23 -31%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $65 +$28 +44%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $23 +$17 +74%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $14 +$5 +33%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $72 −$54 -76%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 12 $153 +$8 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 209.5 Jun 11 $67 +$25 +37%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $105 +$6 +6%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $37 −$28 -76%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Northamptonshire Jun 06 $134 +$27 +20%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Mongolia Jun 06 $53 +$46 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $58 +$42 +73%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $1,064 −$29 -3%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Leicestershire Jun 05 $339 −$95 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 05 $61 −$61 -100%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 05 $148 −$71 -48%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $38 −$38 -98%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Glamorgan Jun 04 $254 −$75 -30%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $700 −$441 -63%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 03 $27 −$26 -98%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $14 −$14 -98%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Oman Jun 03 $39 −$28 -72%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 02 $386 +$317 +82%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $128 −$86 -67%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $251 −$192 -77%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $64 −$7 -10%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $620 −$77 -12%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 30 $24 −$24 -99%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India May 30 $154 +$46 +30%
T20 Asian Games, Women, Qualifier: Malaysia vs Nepal May 30 $12 +$29 +244%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Surrey May 30 $806 +$2 +0%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Somerset May 29 $281 +$209 +74%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Essex May 29 $156 +$57 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Nigeria 98¢ $391 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 83¢ $97 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 83¢ $25 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 78¢ $197 1h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria SELL Nigeria 36¢ $36 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands $9 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 50¢ $10 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 63¢ $32 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 70¢ $2 2h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 68¢ $21 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands $12 2h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 SELL Over $2 7h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 SELL Over $1 7h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 SELL Over $1 7h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 SELL Over $2 7h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 SELL Over 12¢ $11 7h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 9h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 62¢ $0 9h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 62¢ $29 9h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 62¢ $34 9h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 SELL Under $1 10h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 SELL Under 16¢ $1 10h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 SELL Under 16¢ $2 10h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 SELL Under 21¢ $4 10h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 72¢ $36 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 SELL Over 98¢ $98 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 BUY Over 60¢ $60 10h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 SELL Over 50¢ $148 11h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 166.5 SELL Over 50¢ $2 11h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 SELL Over 65¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records