Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d17…9e0a economics 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (90 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day90.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 50% −$2
politics 47% −$2
world 3% $0
other 0% $0
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +31.7% +19.1% 14% 14% -9.6%
≤30d 7 +31.7% +19.1% 14% 14% -9.6%
≤90d 7 +31.7% +19.1% 14% 14% -9.6%
all 7 +31.7% +19.1% 14% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover90.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.1% 14% -9.6%
10% +7.7% 14% -18.2%
15% ← realistic here -2.7% 14% -26.1%
20% -12.2% 14% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day90.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $741 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $480 −$1 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 15 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 15 $595 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $111 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $94 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $92 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $92 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $93 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $93 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $91 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $90 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $92 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $92 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $94 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $95 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $93 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $93 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $95 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $95 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $93 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $93 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $94 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $94 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $95 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $95 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.97 · official $3.97 (match) · 90 history records