Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2D
0x2d0f…81aa
weather · 514 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$16,412 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,967 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$108
Realized+$4,967
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses477 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)526 / 514
History coverage14d
Avg bet$391
Trades / day237.5
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 526 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$326
7 days+$1,154
14 days+$4,968
30 days+$4,967
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? No 60¢ 0¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? No 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? No 85¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $144 $0 −$144 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? No 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? No 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 6? Yes 88¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 15? No 79¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 29? No 59¢ 0¢ $177 $0 −$177 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? No 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7? Yes 81¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 8? No 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16? No 97¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16? No 81¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 5? Yes 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on April 29? No 97¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 1? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 29? No 21¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 15? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 29? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 29? Jun 14 $177 −$177 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on May 13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Apr Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 1? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 29? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on May 2? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,582 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $59 +$19 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $888 +$52 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $94 +$36 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $26 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 14? Jun 13 $229 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $3,028 +$98 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 69°F or below on June Jun 13 $371 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $258 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $219 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $435 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $498 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $268 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $153 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $171 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $111 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $400 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $1,242 +$7 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$5,351
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $3 13m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $499 31m
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $498 32m
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1,594 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $1,582 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $14 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $51 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $49 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $70 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $34 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 76¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? SELL Yes 77¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $99 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $99 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $6 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 80¢ $21 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $100 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $3 10h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $230 14h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $229 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $7 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 269 -4.9% -13.9% 88% 8% -8.4%
≤30d 526 +1.2% -8.4% 91% 7% -7.3%
≤90d 526 +1.2% -8.4% 91% 7% -7.3%
all 526 +1.2% -8.4% 91% 7% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover237.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 7% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 2% -16.2%
15% -25.2% 1% -24.3%
20% -32.5% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.65 · official $107.65 (match) · 3500 history records