Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:26:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d0b…8a37 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 392d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$12
politics 27% $0
other 13% −$1
crypto 11% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -5.0% -14.1% 64% 0% -12.4%
≤90d 16 -4.1% -13.3% 50% 0% -11.7%
all 33 -2.9% -12.2% 42% 3% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -10.6%
10% -20.6% 0% -19.1%
15% -28.2% 0% -26.9%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

392d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage392d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $61 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $73 +$3 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $34 −$14 -40%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $4 −$1 -30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 28 $11 $0 -2%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 07 $2 $0 -5%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 06 $16 −$1 -6%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Jun 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will the National Party of Suriname win the most seats in the 2025 Sur Jun 05 $1 $0 -11%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 45.0% on June 6? Jun 04 $93 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 04 $9 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 04 $1 $0 -31%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 04 $101 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by June 30? Jun 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 03 $111 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? Jun 02 $121 +$1 +0%
Will 'Turbo Granny' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award May 24 $1 $0 +18%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $34 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $4 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $24 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $27 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 38h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $27 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $27 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 24d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $28 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 64¢ $29 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $6 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 61¢ $21 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $20 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $34 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $0.00 · 120 history records