Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d0a…67a8 other 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-23%) realized −$98 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%9W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$73
7 days−$97
14 days−$137
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$112
other 41% −$1
politics 7% −$32
world 1% −$4
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +6.8% -3.3% 20% 20% -32.8%
≤30d 48 +0.2% -9.4% 19% 19% -39.2%
≤90d 48 +0.2% -9.4% 19% 19% -39.2%
all 48 +0.2% -9.4% 19% 19% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 19% -39.2%
10% -18.0% 19% -45.0%
15% -26.0% 19% -50.3%
20% -33.2% 19% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$9 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses9 / 39
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)48 / 55
History coverage79d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $18 $13 −$5 (-28%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-20%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 29, 2026? No 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $14 −$3 -22%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 28 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals Jun 28 $6 +$17 +296%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Trezeguet: 1+ goals Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $15 +$18 +118%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists Jun 26 $1 +$23 +2259%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $15 +$16 +108%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $9 +$10 +118%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $5 +$10 +192%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$45 +440%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 24, 2026? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Jun 24 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $19 +$32 +171%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $7 +$33 +467%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 11¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $9 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 15h
Yoane Wissa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 25¢ $6 20h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 21h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 2¢ $2 21h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 24h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 35h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $4 47h
Trezeguet: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $4 47h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 18¢ $2 47h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 17¢ $11 47h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $15 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 47h
Mohamed Salah: 2+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 2d
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 45¢ $9 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $5 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 5¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.61 · official $32.61 (match) · 109 history records