Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:51:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d08…cee1 world 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$4
other 25% −$4
politics 17% $0
sports 6% $0
crypto 4% −$1
economics 4% $0
finance 2% −$4
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -4.6% -13.7% 12% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 14 -2.8% -12.0% 21% 0% -11.5%
all 51 -4.3% -13.5% 24% 2% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 2% -11.2%
10% -21.7% 2% -19.7%
15% -29.3% 0% -27.5%
20% -36.2% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)51 / 51
History coverage257d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 51 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $12 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $54 −$3 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $11 −$4 -36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $23 +$2 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $25 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $46 −$3 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Mar 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jan 31 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Nov 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025? Oct 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 20 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 19 $14 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Oct 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will Josh Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $43 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $43 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $12 12h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $12 17h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $39 27d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $2 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $18 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $25 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $23 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 29d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $6 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $17 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $36 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 89¢ $26 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $25 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $8 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $36 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $15 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $32 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 56¢ $35 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 314 history records