Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2D 0x2d07…a067 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,335 (-17%) realized −$1,544 · open +$161
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%42W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,270
7 days−$1,913
14 days−$1,544
30 days−$1,544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$1,575
crypto 30% +$217
sports 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -22.9% -30.2% 37% 26% -42.2%
≤30d 83 -14.6% -22.7% 51% 43% -28.6%
≤90d 83 -14.6% -22.7% 51% 43% -28.6%
all 83 -14.6% -22.7% 51% 43% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 43% -28.6%
10% -30.1% 34% -35.4%
15% -36.9% 18% -41.6%
20% -43.1% 14% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$68 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized−$1,544
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses42 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage12d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 94¢ $200 $371 +$171 (+85%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $522 +$82 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $501 +$22 +4%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,259 −$2,266 -70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $500 +$533 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $7 +$6 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $113 +$33 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $41 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 07 $209 +$143 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 07 $104 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 07 $109 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $17 −$11 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 07 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $109 +$16 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 07 $21 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 07 $105 +$28 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 07 $27 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 06 $105 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 06 $106 +$105 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 06 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 06 $104 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $104 +$16 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 06 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $31 +$18 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 1h
Germany to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $604 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 8h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 86¢ $522 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 96¢ $522 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 10h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 10h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 38¢ $375 30h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $633 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $361 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 89¢ $347 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $739 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $143 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $551 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,479 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,033 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $297 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $30 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.62 · official $370.62 (match) · 276 history records