Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2D 0x2d04…805d other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$336 (-27%) realized −$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$342
30 days−$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$279
world 5% −$43
sports 4% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.5% -8.1% 57% 57% -8.3%
≤30d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% -34.3%
≤90d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% -34.3%
all 14 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 57% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 57% -34.3%
10% -16.8% 43% -40.6%
15% -24.9% 43% -46.3%
20% -32.2% 21% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$101 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage10d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $54 +$43 +79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $73 +$27 +37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $82 +$17 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $37 +$30 +83%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$17 -42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $27 −$18 -67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $450 −$447 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $124 +$59 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $76 +$36 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$2 -14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $58 −$43 -75%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $40 +$37 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $78 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $73 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 66¢ $67 7h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 35¢ $37 8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 8h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $148 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 7d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $124 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $14 8d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $58 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $76 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 10d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $40 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records