Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2D 0x2d03…3633 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$4
other 15% +$1
crypto 12% +$1
politics 11% +$1
culture 8% $0
tech 8% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 25% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 24% 0% -8.7%
all 37 +0.4% -9.1% 43% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -8.9%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.13 per $1 lost it wins $10.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage327d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $39 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $76 +$3 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $18 +$2 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $30 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $35 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $74 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 30 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July Jul 30 $73 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 29 $73 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 29 $71 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jul 27 $9 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $4 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 27 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $3600 on July 27 at 5PM ET? Jul 27 $68 +$1 +2%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jul 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 27 $72 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 26 $17 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 6h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $39 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $39 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $13 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $26 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $39 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $10 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $36 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $6 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $34 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $40 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $3 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $27 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 61¢ $40 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $36 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $33 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $33 25d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 27d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes $1 27d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes $1 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.80 · official $35.80 (match) · 139 history records