Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
2D 0x2d01…9725 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$722 (+113%) realized +$796 · open −$74
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +137% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +106% what you keep after slip
Net edge+106%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$580
7 days+$580
14 days+$521
30 days+$521
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% +$476
finance 14% −$11
politics 2% −$8
weather 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+114.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +468.4% +414.3% 75% 75% +836.8%
≤30d 10 +136.9% +114.3% 30% 30% +326.0%
≤90d 10 +136.9% +114.3% 30% 30% +326.0%
all 10 +136.9% +114.3% 30% 30% +326.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +114.3% 30% +326.0%
10% +93.8% 20% +285.2%
15% +75.1% 20% +248.0%
20% +57.9% 20% +213.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +371% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +137% · $-wt +371% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$194 vs −$8 · ×22.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.78 per $1 lost it wins $9.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$418
Realized+$796
Unrealized−$74
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Open positions14
Markets (closed)10 / 24
History coverage14d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Yes 5¢ 19¢ $20 $74 +$54 (+265%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $81 $70 −$11 (-14%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $45 $61 +$16 (+36%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 22¢ 36¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+66%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $66 $30 −$36 (-54%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+55%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $126 $23 −$103 (-82%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-16%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+7%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $7 −$8 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $12 +$54 +450%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $37 +$525 +1419%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -14%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 04 $25 −$25 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 03 $21 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 39m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 39m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 42m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 42m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $66 46m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $30 48m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 48m
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 49m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $17 2h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 3h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 11h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 18h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $3 20h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 20h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $3 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $91 20h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 1¢ $9 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 22h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 22h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 55¢ $562 22h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.85 · official $417.85 (match) · 58 history records