Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d01…27cb sports 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 110d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,564 (+2%) realized +$3,589 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%104W / 215L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$760per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Fees−$1,054est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2,695now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,117
other 25% +$1,047
world 7% −$4,238
tech 1% +$3,537
crypto 1% +$728
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -81.6% -83.3% 10% 10% -73.4%
≤30d 115 -53.7% -58.1% 23% 23% -49.7%
≤90d 234 -28.1% -35.0% 31% 31% -35.5%
all 319 -16.1% -24.1% 33% 32% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 32% -30.3%
10% -31.4% 31% -37.0%
15% ← realistic here -38.0% 28% -43.1%
20% -44.1% 25% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$990) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -37% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$771 vs −$625 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$2,695
Realized+$3,589
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses104 / 215
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,054
Open positions2
Markets (closed)319 / 247
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$760
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 319 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $1,460 $1,425 −$35 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1,260 $1,270 +$10 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 203 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $393 −$393 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 17 $1,296 −$1,296 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $255 −$255 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-07? Jun 17 $1,482 −$1,482 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Jun 17 $732 −$732 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-24? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-01-26? Jun 17 $1,140 −$1,140 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-12-14? Jun 17 $675 −$675 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $260 −$260 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 17 $400 −$400 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 17 $2,350 −$2,156 -92%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Jun 17 $692 −$692 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-01-31? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) Jun 17 $1,456 −$1,456 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-31? Jun 17 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Jun 17 $3,082 −$3,082 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jun 17 $1,173 −$1,173 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-10? Jun 17 $660 −$660 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-25? Jun 17 $349 −$349 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $660 −$660 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 17 $870 −$870 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $360 −$360 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-13? Jun 17 $615 −$615 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $330 −$330 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-24? Jun 17 $960 −$960 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $352 −$352 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-01-28? Jun 17 $428 −$428 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 17 $920 −$920 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Jun 17 $741 −$741 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $2,704 −$2,704 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-01? Jun 17 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $752 −$752 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-02-02? Jun 17 $360 −$360 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-12-09? Jun 17 $685 −$685 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $380 −$380 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-12-02? Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-27? Jun 17 $1,225 −$1,225 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-17? Jun 17 $655 −$655 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-02-21? Jun 17 $738 −$738 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-30? Jun 17 $650 −$650 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $508 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $415 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 83¢ $830 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 2¢ $40 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 55¢ $100 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 56¢ $280 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $13 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $12 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $285 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $186 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $66 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 57¢ $8 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $238 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $5 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $38 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $19 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $13 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $33 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,694.95 · official $2,694.95 (match) · 3500 history records