Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2D 0x2d01…b7ea sports 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$34 (-7%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate14%13W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day63.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$44
14 days−$43
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$15
sports 21% −$12
politics 21% −$13
world 6% −$3
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -15.9% -23.9% 13% 7% -18.2%
≤30d 96 -15.6% -23.7% 14% 7% -17.9%
≤90d 96 -15.6% -23.7% 14% 7% -17.9%
all 96 -15.6% -23.7% 14% 7% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 7% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 7% -25.8%
15% -37.6% 6% -33.0%
20% -43.8% 4% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses13 / 83
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)96 / 99
History coverage8d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day63.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? No 82¢ 79¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? No 82¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? No 34¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will Angel Reese have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 r Jun 17 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primar Jun 17 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 17 $3 $0 -10%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $5 $0 -5%
Rippling IPO before 2027? Jun 17 $29 −$4 -14%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -55%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? Jun 17 $19 −$1 -3%
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Stade Francais win? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Celonis IPO before 2027? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -4%
Glean IPO before 2027? Jun 17 $17 $0 -3%
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Jun 17 $3 $0 +10%
Vanta IPO before 2027? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 17 $3 $0 -6%
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -72%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $6 +$5 +76%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
ITF Irvine: Rudy Quan vs Emon Van Loben Sels Jun 17 $1 $0 -23%
ITF Irvine: Ingrid Carolina Millan Acosta vs Emery Combs Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Janeese Lewis George win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Kenyan McDuffie win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
ITF Tauste: Meritxell Teixido Garcia vs Iveta Dapkute Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Anduril Industries IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 -2%
Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $16 $0 -3%
Will Justin Story be the Republican nominee for FL-09? Jun 16 $4 $0 -5%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Will Chris Stigall be the Republican nominee for MO-06? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
ITF Tauste: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar vs Vaishnavi Adkar Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $7 −$4 -54%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $2 +$2 +79%
ITF Klosters: Batiste Guerra vs Flynn Thomas Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $2 +$3 +119%
ITF San Gregorio: Luna Maria Cinalli vs Carmen Andreea Herea Jun 16 $2 $0 -9%
ITF Haskovo: Lidia Encheva vs Irina Fetecau Jun 16 $2 $0 -12%
ITF Ystad: Camilla Zanolini vs Sarah Van Emst Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $7 −$3 -39%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Dia Jun 16 $3 −$2 -86%
Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampsh Jun 16 $7 −$1 -14%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in third place in the first round of the 20 Jun 16 $6 $0 -6%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial electio Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Databricks IPO before 2027? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -7%
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? SELL No 34¢ $2 30m
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 30m
Will Angel Reese have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 r SELL Yes 63¢ $1 30m
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primar SELL Yes 73¢ $5 30m
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 SELL No 42¢ $3 30m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $3 31m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $3 31m
Rippling IPO before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $7 31m
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 31m
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $2 31m
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $5 31m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 31m
Will Stade Francais win? SELL No 52¢ $3 31m
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 31m
Celonis IPO before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $7 31m
Glean IPO before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $7 31m
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 31m
Applied Intuition IPO before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $4 31m
Vanta IPO before 2027? SELL No 79¢ $6 31m
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? SELL No 70¢ $3 31m
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League Hank Aaron Award? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 31m
ITF Irvine: Rudy Quan vs Emon Van Loben Sels SELL Emon Van Loben Sels 25¢ $1 14h
ITF Irvine: Rudy Quan vs Emon Van Loben Sels BUY Emon Van Loben Sels 31¢ $1 14h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 35¢ $1 15h
Will Diana DeGette be the Democratic nominee for CO-01? BUY No 33¢ $1 15h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $1 15h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 15h
Glean IPO before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $2 15h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 81¢ $2 15h
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? BUY No 73¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.89 · official $8.54 (match) · 492 history records