trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? | No | 20¢ | 22¢ | $24 | $27 | +$3 (+11%) |
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | No | 28¢ | 35¢ | $13 | $16 | +$3 (+27%) |
| Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? | No | 11¢ | 12¢ | $13 | $14 | +$1 (+5%) |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? | Yes | 12¢ | 16¢ | $10 | $13 | +$3 (+29%) |
| Will Trump say "ear" during RNC speech? | No | 43¢ | 0¢ | $18 | $0 | −$18 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | Down | 8¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | Up | 42¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30? | Jun 13 | $33 | +$5 | +15% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? | Jun 12 | $21 | −$7 | -35% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on | Jun 12 | $11 | −$6 | -56% |
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? | Jun 12 | $30 | −$9 | -30% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | Jun 11 | $17 | −$3 | -17% |
| Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 | Feb 06 | $53 | −$4 | -8% |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 | Feb 06 | $103 | +$80 | +78% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET | Feb 06 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET | Feb 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET | Feb 06 | $1 | +$4 | +397% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET | Feb 06 | $3 | +$9 | +310% |
| Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET | Feb 06 | $6 | +$7 | +113% |
| Will Biden finish his term? | Jan 06 | $138 | −$51 | -37% |
| Will Trump say "ear" during RNC speech? | Jul 17 | $18 | −$18 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jul 17 | $183 | +$18 | +10% |
| Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination? | Jul 10 | $190 | +$111 | +58% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -24.4% | -31.6% | 20% | 20% | -25.8% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -24.4% | -31.6% | 20% | 20% | -25.8% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -24.4% | -31.6% | 20% | 20% | -25.8% |
| all | 16 | +31.1% | +18.6% | 44% | 38% | +5.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +18.6% | 38% | +5.3% |
| 10% | +7.3% | 31% | -4.8% |
| 15% | -3.1% | 31% | -14.0% |
| 20% | -12.6% | 31% | -22.4% |