Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:32:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2cff…59db
sports · 15 markets active 6h ago
0.0score
−$55,455 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$53,050 · open −$2,405
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$275,247
Realized−$53,050
Unrealized−$2,405
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Est. fees paid−$18,369
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
Avg bet$89,870
Trades / day255.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 4 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$230,000
7 days+$8,170
14 days−$53,050
30 days−$53,050
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 82¢ 80¢ $164,000 $161,000 −$3,000 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 49¢ 50¢ $49,000 $49,500 +$500 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 35¢ 36¢ $41,652 $42,247 +$595 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $23,000 $22,500 −$500 (-2%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic Novak Djokovic 73¢ 0¢ $361,160 $0 −$361,160 (-100%)
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $853 $0 −$853 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 46¢ 0¢ $230,000 $0 −$230,000 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Card) Belal Muhammad 53¢ 0¢ $211,811 $0 −$211,811 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Andrey Rublev 52¢ 0¢ $93,080 $0 −$93,080 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana Francisco Comesana 33¢ 0¢ $659 $0 −$659 (-100%)
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1,953 $0 −$1,953 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Joao Fonseca 66¢ 0¢ $16,700 $0 −$16,700 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $230,000 −$230,000 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $375,497 +$449,981 +120%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $213,906 −$211,811 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $16,700 −$16,700 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $93,080 −$93,080 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $2,092 +$412,477 +19713%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $644 −$853 -132%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 29 $596 −$659 -111%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $1,364 −$1,953 -143%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $136,181 −$360,451 -265%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$52,648
other 0% −$2,807
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $7 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $14 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $6 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $6 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $8 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $123 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $3 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $2 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $2 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $6 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $4 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $4 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $4 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $2 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $10 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $70 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $7 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $8 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $6 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $18 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $16 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $5 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $10,577 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $6 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $54 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $11 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+90.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -26.7% -33.7% 33% 33% -8.6%
≤30d 11 +110.9% +90.8% 18% 18% -39.2%
≤90d 11 +110.9% +90.8% 18% 18% -39.2%
all 11 +110.9% +90.8% 18% 18% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover255.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +90.8% 18% -39.2%
10% +72.6% 18% -45.0%
15% ← realistic here +55.9% 18% -50.3%
20% +40.6% 18% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275,246.53 · official $275,246.53 (match) · 3500 history records