Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2cfe…e4de other 636 markets active 5h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,856 (-7%) realized −$6,401 · open −$455
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate42%236W / 328L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$6,843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$295
7 days−$1,429
14 days−$4,800
30 days−$4,172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$2,137
sports 33% −$2,468
politics 13% −$660
culture 12% −$1,107
world 5% −$564
crypto 1% −$65
economics 0% −$73
tech 0% −$69
weather 0% −$66
finance 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -29.2% -35.9% 37% 7% -22.7%
≤30d 244 -7.7% -16.5% 40% 16% -22.6%
≤90d 355 -1.2% -10.6% 43% 21% -21.2%
all 564 -11.8% -20.2% 42% 22% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.2% 22% -17.7%
10% -27.9% 16% -25.6%
15% -34.8% 13% -32.8%
20% -41.2% 11% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -29% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$65 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$6,843
Realized−$6,401
Unrealized−$455
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses236 / 328
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions72
Markets (closed)564 / 636
History coverage145d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 72 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 84¢ 81¢ $1,465 $1,426 −$39 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $906 $925 +$19 (+2%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $492 $500 +$8 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 92¢ 94¢ $462 $468 +$6 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 70¢ 44¢ $525 $326 −$199 (-38%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 62¢ 81¢ $205 $267 +$62 (+30%)
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election? No 85¢ 50¢ $345 $201 −$144 (-42%)
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $98 $200 +$102 (+104%)
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? No 87¢ 88¢ $154 $156 +$2 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $146 $147 +$1 (+1%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 93¢ $136 $140 +$3 (+2%)
Will Nancy Lacore be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? Yes 71¢ 74¢ $132 $136 +$4 (+3%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 28¢ $48 $127 +$79 (+166%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 69¢ 94¢ $93 $127 +$34 (+36%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 95¢ 84¢ $143 $127 −$16 (-11%)
Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes 87¢ 81¢ $134 $124 −$10 (-7%)
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 3¢ 24¢ $13 $94 +$81 (+611%)
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 5 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June 27? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $88 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 25¢ 37¢ $58 $86 +$28 (+48%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 99¢ $78 $85 +$7 (+9%)
Will Mac Deford be the Democratic nominee for SC-01? No 90¢ 78¢ $90 $78 −$12 (-13%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $34 $46 +$12 (+37%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 26¢ 30¢ $39 $45 +$6 (+15%)
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $9 $45 +$36 (+395%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Texas win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 17 $239 +$17 +7%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Uloma Ekpete Kama be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $25 +$2 +8%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $4 −$4 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $654 +$22 +3%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the top US Netflix show this we Jun 16 $128 +$9 +7%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $31 −$13 -41%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Mathilde Lollia Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 15 $326 +$34 +10%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Ole Miss win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Team Heretics win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 15 $456 −$91 -20%
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -95%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Billy Horschel win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 15 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $248 +$2 +1%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Sussex Sharks vs Gloucestershire Jun 14 $46 +$1 +2%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Worcestershire Rapids vs Middlesex Jun 14 $13 $0 +3%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $27 +$158 +598%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Leicestershire Foxes vs Kent Jun 14 $21 +$1 +3%
T20 Blast, League 2, Women: Northamptonshire Steelbacks vs Derbyshire Jun 14 $40 −$12 -30%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $159 +$8 +5%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $34 +$140 +419%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $180 −$8 -4%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in May? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOUD vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South America Lea Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Nina Linh advance from the CA-40 primary election? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 17¢ $14 4h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 5 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June BUY Yes 92¢ $28 4h
Will Olivia Rodrigo have 5 songs in Billboard top 10 for week of June BUY Yes 91¢ $53 4h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 13¢ $7 6h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 17¢ $10 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 5¢ $2 6h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 5¢ $0 6h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Malawi 9¢ $9 6h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 19¢ $1 7h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 19¢ $9 7h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 10¢ $8 7h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 5¢ $4 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 17¢ $8 8h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 19¢ $2 8h
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest BUY No 86¢ $72 8h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 15¢ $3 9h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 94¢ $39 13h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 3¢ $3 13h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 3¢ $5 13h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 4¢ $5 13h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY G2 Esports 98¢ $18 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $2 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 6¢ $9 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 6¢ $8 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 93¢ $71 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 93¢ $140 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 94¢ $141 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 94¢ $141 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY England 94¢ $141 16h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 94¢ $118 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,842.94 · official $6,861.70 (match) · 2685 history records