Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:14:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2cfc…8b79 sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$39 (-3%) realized −$40 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%27W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days+$51
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$51
other 36% −$1
politics 3% +$22
crypto 3% −$16
world 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +15.8% +4.8% 59% 59% +0.1%
≤30d 38 +20.8% +9.3% 61% 61% -13.9%
≤90d 38 +20.8% +9.3% 61% 61% -13.9%
all 46 +12.0% +1.3% 59% 54% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 54% -13.8%
10% -8.4% 52% -22.1%
15% -17.2% 46% -29.6%
20% -25.4% 37% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$24 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses27 / 19
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)46 / 52
History coverage605d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $40 +$22 +54%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 −$6 -25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$10 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $81 −$67 -83%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$7 -63%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$9 +88%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +43%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 +$5 +46%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$24 +78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$14 -46%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$23 +112%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$26 +127%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -89%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $25 +$21 +81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -10%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$33 +321%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +104%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$16 +80%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$20 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $115 −$92 -80%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $125 +$52 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 +$10 +51%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $56 +$31 +56%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $176 −$91 -52%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $78 −$77 -99%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 15 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $25 +$2 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 08 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Dec 05 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 26 $6 −$5 -78%
Dogecoin above $0.37 on November 22? Nov 21 $15 −$11 -71%
Solana above $210 on November 22? Nov 20 $16 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $40 +$22 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 42¢ $19 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 12¢ $14 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 67¢ $81 8h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 9h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 9h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 35h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $54 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $12 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $10 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 75¢ $12 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.07 · official $61.07 (match) · 125 history records