Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:29:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

2C 0x2cfb…e40e politics 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d

TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate10%2W / 19L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$210per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$6

7 days−$10

14 days−$10

30 days−$10

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-12.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-3.1%	-12.4%	5%	0%	-9.7%
≤30d	19	-3.1%	-12.4%	5%	0%	-9.7%
≤90d	19	-3.1%	-12.4%	5%	0%	-9.7%
all	21	-2.8%	-12.1%	10%	0%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.1%	0%	-9.7%
10%	-20.5%	0%	-18.4%
15%	-28.2%	0%	-26.3%
20%	-35.2%	0%	-33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage

Net worth$159

Realized−$6

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)10%

Wins / losses2 / 19

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage247d

Avg bet$210

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	99¢	99¢	$159	$159	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 26	$180	−$1	-0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 26	$189	$0	-0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 25	$2	$0	-19%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 25	$189	$0	-0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 25	$191	−$1	-0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 25	$546	−$1	-0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 25	$209	$0	-0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$418	−$1	-0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$191	−$1	-0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$337	−$1	-0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 24	$368	−$1	-0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$417	−$1	-0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$189	$0	-0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$194	−$1	-1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$208	$0	-0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 23	$2	$0	-17%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$1	$0	-21%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 22	$357	−$1	-0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Jun 19	$15	$0	+0%
Interstellar object confirmed aliens?	Dec 18	$19	$0	+1%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Oct 22	$49	$0	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$179	1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$159	2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$188	3h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	4h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$188	6h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	1¢	$2	6h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$188	7h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$179	8h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$198	10h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	12h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$199	15h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	17h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	19h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	23h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$188	28h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$218	29h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$219	30h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	32h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$189	33h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$168	34h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	34h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	36h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$209	38h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$169	38h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$168	40h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$169	42h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$208	2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$189	2d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$189	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.80 · official $158.80 (match) · 76 history records