Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:31:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2C 0x2cfa…e6e0 crypto 1163 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$143 (+3%) realized +$146 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%554W / 644L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day50.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 569 -44.5% -49.8% 28% 25% -75.3%
≤30d 956 -8.7% -17.4% 45% 42% -59.6%
≤90d 1198 -8.0% -16.7% 46% 44% -56.8%
all 1198 -8.0% -16.7% 46% 44% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 44% -56.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 43% -60.9%
15% -32.0% 43% -64.7%
20% -38.7% 42% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$146
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses554 / 644
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1198 / 1163
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day50.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+91%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 47¢ 62¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+31%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Up 52¢ 38¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-26%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.29 · official $35.16 · 3500 history records