Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2cf9…b520 crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$241 (-3%) realized −$241 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate64%43W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$3
crypto 23% −$240
other 14% +$1
economics 3% $0
world 1% +$1
tech 1% +$1
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 3 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 67 -9.2% -17.8% 64% 3% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 3% -12.7%
10% -25.7% 0% -21.0%
15% -32.9% 0% -28.7%
20% -39.5% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses43 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage580d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? Jun 24 $30 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? Mar 10 $32 $0 +1%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi Feb 23 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 23 $10 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by November 30? Dec 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will Meta reach $960 in November? Dec 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on November 8? Nov 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November Nov 06 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 6? Nov 06 $1,019 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11AM ET Nov 06 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19? Nov 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 October 13-19? Nov 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,400 October 13-19? Nov 05 $5 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $4B one day after launch? Nov 05 $6 $0 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 09 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September? Oct 09 $12 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on July 14? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1900 on May 16? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $93000 and $95000 on May 9? May 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $6,000.00 by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on March 7? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 22 $1,075 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $6 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Solana dip to $160 by January 31, 2025? Feb 01 $7 +$1 +15%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 16 $1 $0 +2%
GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +2%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 16 $2 $0 +1%
GPT-5 not announced in 2024? Jan 16 $3 $0 +6%
Will RFK Jr. get the most votes of any 3rd party candidate? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jill Stein get >1% of the popular vote? Dec 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Independence Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parlia Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah be the next President of Namibia? Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
CA-13 election: Gray (D) vs. Duarte (R) Dec 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will USR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 05 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump win Alabama by 30+ points? Dec 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Dolphins win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 01 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 32d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 62d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 99¢ $30 105d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $10 120d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $3 120d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $4 120d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $2 120d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $2 120d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $3 120d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $3 120d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $2 120d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $1 120d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? BUY No 99¢ $1 120d
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $20 mi BUY No 96¢ $31 162d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $30 182d
Will Meta reach $960 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 213d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $10 213d
TikTok sale announced by November 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 213d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on November 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 229d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 11AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $225 229d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,019 230d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $25 230d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $25 230d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $25 230d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $25 230d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $25 230d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114,000 and $116,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $25 230d
Will XRP reach $2.80 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 247d
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $5 247d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 164 history records