Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:30:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cf9…7a19 sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$244 (-3%) realized −$241 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%39W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$21
14 days−$15
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$401
other 11% −$27
crypto 7% +$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +36.0% +23.0% 100% 67% +6.1%
≤30d 51 -6.9% -15.8% 49% 35% -10.5%
≤90d 80 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 39% -14.0%
all 80 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 39% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 39% -14.0%
10% -21.0% 31% -22.2%
15% -28.7% 30% -29.7%
20% -35.7% 28% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$54 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized−$241
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses39 / 41
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage49d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $285 $282 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $87 +$3 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +56%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $199 +$70 +35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $107 −$107 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $41 +$43 +105%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $992 −$574 -58%
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $107 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $79 +$129 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $34 −$32 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$30 -94%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $90 +$10 +11%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $15 +$7 +46%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $146 +$32 +22%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $11 −$11 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $101 +$4 +4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 08 $400 +$16 +4%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 08 $192 −$192 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 08 $91 −$91 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$6 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 07 $27 +$182 +685%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $656 +$60 +9%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $30 −$6 -20%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 06 $862 +$637 +74%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $28 −$17 -58%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $31 +$97 +316%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $20 +$4 +18%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $22 +$28 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $199 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $90 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $87 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 88¢ $25 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 7d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $20 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $30 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $269 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $199 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $107 9d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) SELL Spurs 100¢ $83 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 16¢ $86 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 61¢ $332 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 72¢ $50 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 92¢ $100 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 95¢ $801 16d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 49¢ $41 16d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $41 16d
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik SELL Elizabeth Mandlik 95¢ $50 16d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 42¢ $41 17d
Ilkley: Mimi Xu vs Elizabeth Mandlik BUY Elizabeth Mandlik 95¢ $50 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.94 · official $281.94 (match) · 242 history records