Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cf9…a1c9 crypto 1134 markets active 1h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,773 (-11%) realized −$2,773 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%506W / 628L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$218
7 days−$544
14 days−$544
30 days−$544
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$2,672
world 3% −$769
sports 1% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -10.4% -18.9% 46% 46% -20.7%
≤30d 35 -10.4% -18.9% 46% 46% -20.7%
≤90d 149 -16.9% -24.8% 41% 41% -23.9%
all 1134 -10.1% -18.7% 45% 45% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 45% -22.7%
10% -26.4% 44% -30.1%
15% -33.5% 44% -36.9%
20% -40.1% 44% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$21 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,773
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses506 / 628
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1134 / 1134
History coverage250d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1134 Trades
no open positions (388 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $202 −$195 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $162 +$145 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $198 −$198 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$62 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $104 +$124 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$36 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $105 +$26 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$20 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $212 −$205 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $114 +$97 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $62 +$51 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$38 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $335 −$325 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $206 +$150 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $413 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $206 +$154 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $311 +$324 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $243 +$209 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $181 +$165 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $171 +$147 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $54 −$20 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $90 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$34 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $208 −$146 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 04 $169 −$165 -98%
Barletta: Kimmer Coppejans vs Vitaliy Sachko Apr 04 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 04 $33 +$59 +181%
Miyazaki: Harry Wendelken vs Tung-Lin Wu Apr 04 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 04 $5 +$5 +97%
Barletta: Michele Ribecai vs Mili Poljicak Apr 04 $33 −$21 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 04 $8 +$6 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 04 $39 −$20 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Apr 04 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 04 $6 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 04 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 04 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 04 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 04 $7 +$6 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $202 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $162 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $32 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $124 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2717 history records