Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2cf7…294a sports 318 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,504 (-3%) realized −$2,423 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%102W / 179L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$342est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$9,737now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$759
7 days+$66
14 days+$260
30 days−$4,066
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$783
sports 28% −$1,347
other 22% −$745
politics 11% −$24
crypto 3% −$260
tech 0% −$10
culture 0% −$161
finance 0% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -18.2% -26.0% 24% 24% -9.1%
≤30d 91 -40.1% -45.8% 24% 22% -24.0%
≤90d 263 -21.5% -29.0% 36% 35% -12.8%
all 281 -20.0% -27.6% 36% 35% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 35% -13.1%
10% -34.5% 30% -21.4%
15% -40.9% 27% -29.0%
20% -46.7% 22% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$84 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$9,737
Realized−$2,423
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses102 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$342
Open positions37
Markets (closed)281 / 318
History coverage110d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $1,998 $1,908 −$90 (-4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 53¢ $999 $946 −$54 (-5%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 77¢ 76¢ $508 $505 −$3 (-1%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 62¢ $500 $504 +$4 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 62¢ $490 $502 +$13 (+3%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 73¢ 72¢ $504 $500 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 61¢ $494 $495 +$1 (+0%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 55¢ $498 $485 −$13 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 45¢ 42¢ $500 $472 −$28 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $387 $426 +$39 (+10%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $317 $327 +$9 (+3%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $250 $283 +$33 (+13%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $179 $279 +$100 (+56%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 56¢ 60¢ $222 $238 +$16 (+7%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 77¢ 76¢ $197 $196 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $150 $186 +$36 (+24%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $150 $176 +$26 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $150 $158 +$8 (+5%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $150 $103 −$47 (-32%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $75 $85 +$10 (+13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $100 $76 −$24 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,029 −$162 -16%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,027 −$94 -9%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $2,997 +$2,486 +83%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,254 −$207 -16%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $1,287 −$452 -35%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,113 −$23 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,115 −$1,112 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,158 +$286 +25%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $230 +$36 +16%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will G2 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $304 +$251 +83%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 15 $532 −$17 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $560 −$555 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $101 −$3 -3%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $1,134 −$29 -3%
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $305 −$137 -45%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$11 +67%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$2 -18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $104 −$102 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +67%
Will 9z qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $102 −$5 -5%
Will BetBoom qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $102 −$33 -32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $670 +$89 +13%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $1,013 +$79 +8%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will LGD Gaming win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $101 +$28 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $233 +$55 +24%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $107 +$64 +60%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $67 −$13 -19%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $101 +$71 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $51 +$13 +25%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Rostikfacekid Club (BO3) - Winline Star Seri May 31 $60 +$39 +65%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 2 Winner May 31 $70 −$70 -100%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 1 Winner May 31 $82 −$82 -100%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Gr May 31 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z - Map 2 Winner May 31 $51 −$7 -13%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team NS vs Recrent Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battle Group May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 4 Winner May 31 $45 −$24 -52%
Will FURIA win PGL Astana 2026? May 31 $112 −$56 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 77¢ $74 1m
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 77¢ $163 2m
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 77¢ $125 4m
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 77¢ $349 4m
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 73¢ $508 4m
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $297 14m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 56¢ $113 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 55¢ $111 1h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $23 2h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $27 3h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $7 5h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $8 5h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $3 6h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $3 6h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $2 6h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $9 7h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $61 8h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $62 8h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $508 10h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $487 10h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $349 10h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $32 10h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $928 10h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 10h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1,027 10h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $915 10h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $114 10h
Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $13 11h
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 60¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,736.59 · official $9,737.31 (match) · 963 history records