Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cf5…5cf4 other 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$2
world 23% +$5
politics 19% $0
culture 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.5% -10.0% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 16 +4.2% -5.7% 25% 12% -8.5%
≤90d 16 +4.2% -5.7% 25% 12% -8.5%
all 56 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 4% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 4% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 94% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage303d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 25 $25 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $45 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $12 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $6 +$4 +68%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $2 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -40%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $6 +$4 +64%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $8 −$2 -23%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 18 $1 $0 +2%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 16 $9 $0 -1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $3 −$1 -33%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 15 $22 $0 -1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 14 $25 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Sep 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will Maria Steen win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ap win the second most seats in the Norway election? Sep 08 $22 $0 -0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 29 $3 $0 +2%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 28 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $45 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $45 17h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $21 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 33h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $37 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $7 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $45 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $12 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $12 2d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $10 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 25¢ $6 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $43 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $43 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $46 18d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $46 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 20d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $46 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $2 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 20d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records