Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cf3…9e08 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate27%14W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2
other 23% −$1
politics 18% −$1
culture 5% $0
tech 4% $0
weather 4% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.2% -8.4% 40% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 18 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 18 -0.4% -9.9% 39% 0% -9.2%
all 52 -1.4% -10.8% 27% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses14 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage324d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $118 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $38 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $38 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $6 $0 -7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $84 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $3 $0 -9%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $43 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $3800 on August 11? Aug 11 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 11 $11 $0 -2%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August? Aug 10 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on August 1? Aug 10 $54 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 06 $10 $0 -0%
2025 July hottest on record? Aug 04 $11 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 03 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 03 $10 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 02 $11 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 31 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $46 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $18 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $28 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $46 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $1 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $2 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $5 22h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $1 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $6 24h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $30 33h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $21 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $33 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $12 16d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $45 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $28 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 17d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.36 · official $45.36 (match) · 179 history records