Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:42:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cf3…ae6f other 394 markets active 9h ago coverage 62d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$565 (+4%) realized +$764 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate14%48W / 288L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$135
14 days−$252
30 days−$2,239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$1,332
world 28% −$748
sports 3% +$150
finance 2% −$50
weather 2% −$140
crypto 1% −$20
politics 0% −$18
culture 0% +$28
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -69.5% -72.4% 9% 5% -25.5%
≤30d 190 -45.0% -50.2% 13% 12% -36.7%
≤90d 336 -9.5% -18.2% 14% 13% -10.8%
all 336 -9.5% -18.2% 14% 13% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.2% 13% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.0% 11% -19.4%
15% -33.1% 10% -27.2%
20% -39.7% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$26 · ×6.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$684
Realized+$764
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses48 / 288
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions45
Markets (closed)336 / 394
History coverage62d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $90 $195 +$105 (+116%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $43 $51 +$8 (+18%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $56 $43 −$13 (-24%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $31 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $50 $32 −$18 (-36%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+12%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $27 +$12 (+81%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $26 −$8 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $42 $21 −$21 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $13 −$10 (-43%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $29 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $9 −$21 (-70%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-75%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 249 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $6 −$3 -52%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $10 −$4 -41%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 28 $26 −$24 -93%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 28 $5 $0 -8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 28 $12 −$9 -78%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 France? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $36 −$24 -66%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Curaçao 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $31 +$93 +303%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -95%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 0 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $60 −$1 -1%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 −$3 -32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Jun 23 $6 −$3 -52%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $8 −$2 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in July 2026? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $127 +$151 +119%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $28 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 8h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 8h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 14h
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 14h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 15h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 18h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 18h
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $30 18h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 18h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 0¢ $5 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 18h
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 18h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 19h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 22h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 23h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 44h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $8 44h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $683.90 · official $683.93 (match) · 3243 history records