Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2cf0…df85 sports 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$692 (+1%) realized +$700 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%94W / 157L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$244per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,099
7 days+$2,858
14 days+$2,858
30 days+$1,866
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$481
sports 40% −$651
world 1% −$106
crypto 0% −$50
economics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +43.1% +29.5% 38% 38% +60.5%
≤30d 30 +32.7% +20.0% 33% 33% +22.5%
≤90d 84 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 33% -12.1%
all 251 -3.1% -12.3% 37% 35% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 35% -10.0%
10% -20.7% 32% -18.6%
15% -28.4% 31% -26.5%
20% -35.4% 29% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$182 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$700
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses94 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage189d
Avg bet$244
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $208 $200 −$8 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $123 −$121 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $85 +$135 +160%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$44 +86%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $26 +$201 +784%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $152 +$160 +105%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $59 −$57 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1,014 +$871 +86%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $249 −$245 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $64 −$47 -73%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$310 +794%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $120 −$117 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $480 +$1,736 +362%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $282 +$311 +110%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $254 +$280 +110%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $896 −$878 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 19 $444 −$67 -15%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 19 $199 −$44 -22%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $67 −$3 -5%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? May 18 $32 −$31 -97%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 +$115 +113%
Will Lille OSC vs. AJ Auxerre end in a draw? May 17 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $102 −$61 -60%
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score May 17 $53 −$52 -98%
Newcastle United FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $101 +$51 +51%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $706 −$690 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexei Popyrin vs Jakub Mensik May 09 $1,005 −$989 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Pellegrino vs Fils May 09 $51 −$2 -5%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $247 −$241 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3,641 +$599 +16%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $205 +$664 +324%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $1,016 +$990 +98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Simona Waltert vs Hailey Baptiste May 08 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $493 −$482 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC leading at halftime? May 07 $512 −$500 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltert May 06 $1,495 −$1,468 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $212 49m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $220 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $20 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $7 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $25 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $25 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $6 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $49 23h
Norway leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $95 24h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $227 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 11¢ $26 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $37 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $152 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,885 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 47h
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $46 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.39 · official $200.39 (match) · 516 history records