Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2C 0x2cf0…de6d sports 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$879 (+5%) realized +$944 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%50W / 66L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$1,888
14 days−$1,089
30 days−$1,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$754
other 41% −$255
politics 4% +$67
world 2% +$148
crypto 1% +$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -80.4% -82.3% 10% 10% -83.1%
≤30d 41 -29.7% -36.4% 29% 29% -39.4%
≤90d 45 -24.2% -31.4% 31% 31% -29.6%
all 116 +11.2% +0.6% 43% 40% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 40% -4.9%
10% -9.0% 38% -14.0%
15% -17.8% 38% -22.3%
20% -25.9% 36% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$82 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$944
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses50 / 66
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage252d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 44¢ 16¢ $101 $36 −$65 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $56 +$47 +83%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $41 +$15 +36%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $46 −$8 -16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$34 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$150 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 −$150 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $127 +$109 +86%
Broncos vs. Commanders Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Flames vs. Oilers: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Sharks vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Texans vs. Chiefs Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Tigres de la UANL win on 2025-12-03? Jun 15 $69 −$69 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-12.5) Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-30? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Thunder vs. Warriors Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Senators vs. Canucks Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Raiders vs. Chargers Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Capitals vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Vikings vs. Seahawks Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 +$77 +152%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $77 +$191 +250%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $102 −$11 -11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$91 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $61 +$48 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $101 +$95 +93%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$85 +276%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$168 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$142 +139%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $1,804 −$159 -9%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $10 −$1 -14%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $39 +$29 +73%
Oilers vs. Utah Apr 08 $78 +$58 +75%
Sabres vs. Senators Dec 24 $50 +$6 +12%
Utah vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Dec 04 $200 −$60 -30%
Sabres vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5 Dec 04 $140 +$151 +108%
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential elect Dec 03 $636 +$67 +10%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 03 $491 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 44¢ $103 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $56 11h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $56 11h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $138 3d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $39 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $35 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $101 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $152 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $152 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 6d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $153 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $127 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $51 7d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $91 7d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. E BUY 10¢ $26 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $77 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $61 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $101 7d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $101 8d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 51¢ $101 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 9¢ $31 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 10d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $244 10d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $102 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $41 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 10d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $148 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.58 · official $35.58 (match) · 389 history records