Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cee…cb9e other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%19W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% $0
other 24% −$2
crypto 9% −$1
politics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 49 -4.7% -13.8% 39% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -22.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses19 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage460d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $88 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Dec 11 $5 $0 +4%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jul 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 18 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 18 $6 $0 -6%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el May 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in May 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? May 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 14 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will Austria qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 10 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 08 $12 $0 -2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 28 $13 $0 -0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 24 $13 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 23 $14 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 21 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $34 3h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $31 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $31 12d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $18 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $14 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $31 13d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $7 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $26 18d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $33 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 18d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $26 18d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $26 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $14 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $17 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $31 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $14 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $9 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $13 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 19d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $31 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records