Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:20:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2cee…5a38 other 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$251 (+19%) realized +$200 · open +$51
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%28W / 23L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$131
7 days+$166
14 days+$159
30 days+$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$102
crypto 15% +$54
sports 13% +$110
politics 3% −$8
economics 3% −$11
world 2% −$31
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -12.2% -20.5% 44% 44% +12.0%
≤30d 39 -7.6% -16.4% 49% 46% +9.1%
≤90d 51 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 51% +9.5%
all 51 +3.2% -6.6% 55% 51% +9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 51% +9.5%
10% -15.5% 49% -0.9%
15% -23.7% 45% -10.5%
20% -31.2% 37% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$476
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses28 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)51 / 60
History coverage50d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $112 +$27 (+31%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $60 $88 +$28 (+47%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $75 −$10 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $50 $63 +$13 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $35 $39 +$5 (+13%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$38 +48%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$29 +94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$33 +66%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$31 +61%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $23 +$15 +66%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +63%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $132 +$78 +59%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +238%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Rare earth" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 +$34 +300%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16 +$13 +81%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +66%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 14 $30 −$7 -23%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -83%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $39 −$26 -68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$13 +49%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 08 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 08 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 03 $1 $0 +4%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $4 +$1 +26%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 +$4 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 02 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 02 $2 −$2 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $50 57m
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 84¢ $22 58m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $52 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 82¢ $28 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $44 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 43¢ $31 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 85¢ $18 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $22 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 13h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 13h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 20h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 28h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 35h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $10 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 35h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $5 37h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 82¢ $29 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $52 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $97 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 47¢ $19 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.74 · official $475.74 (match) · 211 history records