Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2C
0x2ced…da99
other · 125 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,286 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,286 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses26 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage132d
Avg bet$930
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 0 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$23
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,509 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,685 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,930 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,956 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $993 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $210 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $409 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $248 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $692 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $881 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,551 −$4 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $3,190 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $176 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $170 +$1 +0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $168 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 29 $371 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $381 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $382 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $313 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,002 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3,069 −$3 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $2,201 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $843 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $847 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $901 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3,259 −$3 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $844 +$1 +0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $136 $0 +0%
Suns vs. Magic Apr 06 $1,039 −$1,039 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$401
politics 33% −$60
sports 21% −$753
culture 2% −$3
economics 1% $0
world 1% −$52
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $860 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $861 9h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $781 9h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $782 12h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $937 29h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $938 32h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $838 34h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $840 37h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $753 5d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $754 5d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $860 5d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $861 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $819 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $820 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $890 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $891 6d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $663 9d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $664 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $995 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $997 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $991 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $993 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $878 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $879 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $350 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $351 12d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $429 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $430 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $349 16d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $349 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -15.1% -23.2% 12% 2% -11.4%
all 125 -7.6% -16.4% 21% 7% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 7% -10.5%
10% -24.4% 7% -19.1%
15% -31.7% 6% -26.9%
20% -38.4% 2% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records