Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2C 0x2cec…8cb1 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$13 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$18
14 days+$13
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$15
world 27% −$8
sports 19% +$37
politics 6% −$6
economics 6% −$2
weather 4% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +52.5% +38.0% 44% 44% +20.1%
≤30d 22 +40.9% +27.5% 45% 45% +4.7%
≤90d 22 +40.9% +27.5% 45% 45% +4.7%
all 22 +40.9% +27.5% 45% 45% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.5% 45% +4.7%
10% +15.3% 45% -5.4%
15% +4.2% 45% -14.5%
20% -6.0% 45% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +89% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)22 / 41
History coverage24d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $6 −$2 (-25%)
Will Team Falcons win an S tier event in 2026? No 28¢ 54¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+93%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 30¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-71%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria (24) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +307%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +325%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$7 +249%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -83%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $3 +$7 +244%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $3 +$3 +91%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 29 $1 +$2 +152%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $10 −$6 -59%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on May 24? May 24 $2 +$2 +76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 1h
Will Austria (24) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 43h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 3d
Will Austria (24) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI BUY Yes 22¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes $1 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $5 13d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? BUY No 21¢ $5 13d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.77 · official $71.77 (match) · 79 history records