Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2ceb…f7a2 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%6W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
other 29% $0
crypto 8% $0
sports 8% $0
world 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.5%
all 24 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses6 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage130d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? May 22 $108 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $108 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $108 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 12 $108 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $108 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $108 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $108 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $108 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $108 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $107 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $107 12h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $107 16d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $107 16d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $107 20d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $108 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $108 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $108 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? SELL No 100¢ $108 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 100¢ $108 32d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 34d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $108 35d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 39d
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 40d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 41d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 41d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 60d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 61d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 63d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 63d
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 100¢ $109 69d
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 99¢ $108 69d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 70d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 71d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $109 75d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $108 75d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 92d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 92d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 94d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 94d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records