Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ce8…09db world 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 483d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate55%16W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$1
other 10% $0
politics 6% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.4% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 10 +10.8% +0.3% 40% 10% -9.9%
≤90d 10 +10.8% +0.3% 40% 10% -9.9%
all 29 +0.9% -8.7% 55% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 3% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

483d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses16 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage483d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $36 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $39 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $34 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $39 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $59 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $3 $0 -4%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $7 +$1 +7%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Carmelo Anthony make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Ha Mar 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $36 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $36 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $35 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $33 16d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 17d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $15 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $29 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $22 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 37¢ $19 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $38 20d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 79¢ $39 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records