Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:30:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2ce7…4b2e other 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$353per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$55
politics 37% −$19
sports 7% +$105
crypto 6% −$4
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.7% 0% 0% -18.2%
≤30d 11 -9.2% -17.8% 0% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 103 -2.2% -11.5% 5% 4% -9.6%
all 118 +3.0% -6.8% 10% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 7% -9.5%
10% -15.8% 6% -18.1%
15% -23.9% 5% -26.0%
20% -31.4% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$1 · ×10.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage117d
Avg bet$353
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $320 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 −$37 -99%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $372 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 08 $31 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 23 $339 −$2 -1%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $274 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $303 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $988 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $337 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $382 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 13 $654 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $314 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $359 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $368 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $307 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $306 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $298 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $300 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 04 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $278 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $372 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $356 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $349 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 26 $390 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 26 $662 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $938 −$1 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 22 $371 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $386 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $325 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $385 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 9h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 18h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 38h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $38 45h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 9d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $61 10d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $61 14d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $31 14d
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $61 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $61 23d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $63 23d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $63 24d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $355 24d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $355 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $337 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $339 31d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $369 31d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $369 31d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $274 31d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $274 32d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $303 32d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $303 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 353 history records