Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:16:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ce4…bb54 crypto 574 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$1,975 (-4%) realized −$10,840 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate26%150W / 438L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day262.4pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,142
7 days−$4,345
14 days−$10,840
30 days−$10,840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$9,602
other 1% −$130
world 0% −$12
economics 0% −$38
politics 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -22.1% -29.6% 26% 23% -32.8%
≤30d 588 -10.3% -18.8% 26% 24% -30.6%
≤90d 588 -10.3% -18.8% 26% 24% -30.6%
all 588 -10.3% -18.8% 26% 24% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover262.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 24% -30.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 23% -37.3%
15% -33.7% 21% -43.3%
20% -40.2% 20% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$66 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$10,840
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses150 / 438
Open positions3
Markets (closed)588 / 574
History coverage13d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day262.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $132 $0 −$132 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $166 $0 −$166 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$27 -269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $175 −$175 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $186 −$186 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$11 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Jun 09 $25 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $69 −$60 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $95 −$16 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $147 −$140 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $78 +$107 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $104 −$51 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $162 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $182 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $130 −$58 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $113 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $157 −$150 -96%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $390 −$24 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $220 −$210 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 09 $178 −$170 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $157 −$150 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $157 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 09 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $240 −$180 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $176 +$23 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.18 · official $10.18 (match) · 3500 history records