Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2ce1…8dc0 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+4%) realized +$131 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%17W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$108
14 days−$108
30 days−$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$53
other 28% +$43
crypto 1% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -10.1% -18.7% 26% 26% -13.5%
≤30d 48 -12.0% -20.4% 25% 25% -14.7%
≤90d 58 +3.3% -6.5% 29% 29% -7.3%
all 60 -0.1% -9.6% 28% 28% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 28% -8.1%
10% -18.3% 28% -16.9%
15% -26.2% 28% -25.0%
20% -33.4% 28% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$42 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$131
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses17 / 43
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage101d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 26¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+10%)
Algeria leading at halftime? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $26 +$92 +360%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $97 −$95 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $77 −$75 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $76 −$75 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$118 +116%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 +$26 +513%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $31 +$269 +873%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$9 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $62 −$60 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $82 +$158 +194%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 +$20 +66%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$228 +223%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ assists Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $103 −$101 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$154 +152%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $40 −$39 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 +$104 +102%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $123 +$252 +205%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $102 +$127 +125%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $151 +$106 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $36 30m
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 34m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $118 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 5¢ $10 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 21¢ $26 3h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $51 27h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 30h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 38¢ $1 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 24¢ $97 44h
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Under 26¢ $77 45h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 46¢ $76 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $220 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 45¢ $102 45h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 45h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $300 45h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 45h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $15 46h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 47h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $31 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $9 47h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $7 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $10 2d
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $62 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 31¢ $41 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $240 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.05 · official $39.34 (match) · 91 history records