Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2ce0…8d6f other 312 markets active 1h ago coverage 722d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,845 (-4%) realized −$10,393 · open +$548
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%147W / 155L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$809per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$5,773now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,678
7 days+$4,382
14 days+$8,832
30 days+$3,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$13,925
other 30% −$20,416
sports 22% +$10,306
economics 12% +$9,903
tech 2% +$3,593
world 1% +$316
finance 0% −$764
politics 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +20.7% +9.2% 64% 64% +26.3%
≤30d 21 +10.4% -0.2% 52% 52% +4.8%
≤90d 83 -5.8% -14.7% 51% 45% -8.3%
all 302 -13.4% -21.6% 49% 46% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 46% -13.9%
10% -29.1% 42% -22.1%
15% -36.0% 33% -29.6%
20% -42.3% 26% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$529 vs −$579 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

722d coverage
Net worth$5,773
Realized−$10,393
Unrealized+$548
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses147 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions10
Markets (closed)302 / 312
History coverage722d
Avg bet$809
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 47¢ $1,354 $1,518 +$164 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 60¢ $1,000 $1,062 +$62 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $983 −$17 (-2%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 30¢ 52¢ $500 $877 +$377 (+75%)
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31? No 92¢ 94¢ $552 $567 +$15 (+3%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 90¢ 94¢ $360 $376 +$16 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 72¢ $134 $145 +$11 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $136 $106 −$30 (-22%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $128 $96 −$32 (-25%)
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $62 $43 −$19 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $505 +$241 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $507 +$402 +79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 −$110 -43%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1,018 +$1,490 +146%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $303 +$138 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,021 +$875 +29%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $500 −$60 -12%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $504 +$119 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,218 +$686 +56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $202 +$55 +27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1,232 +$2,345 +190%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $512 −$500 -98%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 04 $1,337 +$363 +27%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 04 $1,913 +$4,087 +214%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 29 $3,044 −$2,576 -85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $2,481 −$1,731 -70%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $2,655 −$563 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 27 $203 −$134 -66%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 27 $278 −$201 -72%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $1,018 +$1,482 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $2,031 +$2,135 +105%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 06 $102 +$71 +70%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $3,498 +$1,320 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 03 $1,757 −$1,757 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 03 $509 +$151 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 03 $513 +$266 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 03 $1,036 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 03 $1,030 −$987 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 03 $616 −$519 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 02 $1,000 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 02 $1,000 +$100 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 02 $509 +$147 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 02 $1,853 +$1,212 +65%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 28-May 4? May 02 $90 −$90 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 02 $652 −$633 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 02 $521 −$311 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 02 $1,033 +$814 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 02 $1,545 +$1,057 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9PM ET May 02 $824 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 02 $526 +$1,235 +235%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 02 $627 −$466 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET May 02 $828 −$20 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 02 $1,890 −$1,714 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 02 $1,857 −$1,447 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 02 $567 +$12 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 02 $413 +$310 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 02 $954 −$20 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 02 $621 −$599 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 55¢ $507 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $144 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $254 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,018 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,014 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 32h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 68¢ $303 32h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 77¢ $3,021 34h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $440 46h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $500 46h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $500 46h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $1,000 46h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 33¢ $411 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 32¢ $616 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 65¢ $608 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 43¢ $205 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY No 78¢ $202 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $504 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 61¢ $609 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $137 5d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 42¢ $512 6d
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $62 13d
Will Pakistan recognize Israel by December 31? BUY No 92¢ $552 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $1,030 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $538 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $437 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $435 13d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 90¢ $361 13d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $468 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,773.45 · official $5,773.45 (match) · 1172 history records