Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2C 0x2cdd…3a5b other 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%151W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$66
14 days+$76
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$152
sports 7% +$107
world 2% +$111
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +37.5% +24.4% 100% 100% +16.6%
≤30d 30 +20.3% +8.9% 70% 70% +2.1%
≤90d 30 +20.3% +8.9% 70% 70% +2.1%
all 269 -4.0% -13.2% 56% 55% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 55% -8.8%
10% -21.5% 52% -17.5%
15% -29.1% 45% -25.5%
20% -36.0% 33% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses151 / 118
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)269 / 278
History coverage282d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 269 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 113 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $60 +$15 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $67 +$8 +12%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +66%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 +$9 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$18 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$26 +101%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$21 +105%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +63%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$19 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $55 +$31 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $55 −$55 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$25 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 +$14 +44%
Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-07? Nov 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06? Nov 07 $7 +$4 +59%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-11-06? Nov 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-06? Nov 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $10 +$11 +113%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $21 +$10 +47%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $25 +$7 +26%
Will PSV win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-11-02? Nov 03 $32 +$13 +39%
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Al Ittihad Saudi Club win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-10-31? Nov 01 $30 +$18 +61%
Will PFK CSKA Moskva win on 2025-10-31? Nov 01 $40 +$9 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 49¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY 49¢ $24 16h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 27¢ $15 16h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $60 16h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 61¢ $4 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 54¢ $35 5d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 61¢ $35 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $67 5d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 54¢ $25 6d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 78¢ $25 6d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY 59¢ $25 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $7 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 7d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY 85¢ $48 7d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 7d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 8d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 8d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $25 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 71¢ $24 9d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 9d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.30 · official $112.89 · 512 history records