Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:51:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2C 0x2cdc…231d sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$227 (-2%) realized −$247 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%95W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$139est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$144
14 days+$460
30 days−$364
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$349
other 4% −$31
world 2% +$40
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +31.6% +19.1% 59% 56% +12.1%
≤30d 141 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 52% -12.8%
≤90d 141 +0.7% -8.9% 55% 52% -12.8%
all 166 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 52% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 52% -11.8%
10% -18.6% 45% -20.2%
15% -26.5% 33% -27.9%
20% -33.7% 20% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$59 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$247
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses95 / 71
Est. fees paid−$139
Open positions2
Markets (closed)166 / 168
History coverage218d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 98¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+91%)
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Sweden 40¢ 91¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+127%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +93%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $41 +$93 +229%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$48 +158%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $103 +$8 +8%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$9 -88%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 +$3 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$4 +36%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +145%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +41%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$66 +642%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - As Jun 10 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $10 +$5 +50%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $30 +$14 +46%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $121 −$70 -58%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $100 +$16 +16%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $10 +$5 +48%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1 $0 +39%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $61 −$60 -99%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $50 +$15 +30%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $92 −$90 -97%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $102 −$60 -59%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: NightBirds vs eSuba (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Jun 02 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $102 +$58 +57%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $102 +$131 +128%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $102 +$128 +126%
LoL: The Ruddy Sack vs Arctic Pandas - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $101 +$44 +44%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $101 +$21 +21%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $101 +$513 +509%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $10 −$5 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $15 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $94 4h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 53¢ $51 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 23¢ $10 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 9¢ $10 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $10 13h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 13h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 51¢ $10 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $134 16h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $29 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 24¢ $10 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 30¢ $10 21h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 88¢ $79 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $10 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $10 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $23 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 40¢ $10 26h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 33¢ $20 35h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 68¢ $20 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 37h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 27¢ $106 39h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 5¢ $103 42h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 2¢ $1 43h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 14¢ $10 45h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.51 · official $38.97 · 313 history records