Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cd8…6656 crypto 11 markets active 5h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$24 (-9%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$70
sports 17% +$18
other 6% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 45% -18.9%
≤30d 11 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 45% -18.9%
≤90d 11 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 45% -18.9%
all 11 -10.8% -19.3% 45% 45% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 45% -18.9%
10% -27.0% 36% -26.7%
15% -34.1% 36% -33.8%
20% -40.6% 36% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$23 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage6d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 +$28 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$24 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$33 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $15 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records