Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2ccc…d804 other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$15
politics 35% −$13
sports 13% +$36
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 92 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 135 +0.3% -9.2% 10% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×9.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage131d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $529 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $181 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $191 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $191 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $270 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 17 $455 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $269 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $541 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $264 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $202 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $202 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $451 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $231 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $228 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $196 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $223 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $191 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $217 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $275 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 22 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 21 $205 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $451 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $389 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 18 $259 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $258 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $251 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $253 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $260 23d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 24d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $246 24d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $246 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $250 25d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $250 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $181 26d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $181 27d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $207 27d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $207 27d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 28d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 28d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $191 29d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $191 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 30d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 30d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $191 30d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $191 30d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $270 30d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $270 31d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $189 32d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $189 32d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $258 32d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $258 34d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $205 34d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $205 35d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $262 35d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $262 35d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $268 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 378 history records