Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2C 0x2cca…ef56 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52 (+3%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%25W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days−$37
14 days+$67
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$35
sports 43% +$32
crypto 9% −$59
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.8% -13.8% 54% 50% -12.1%
≤30d 43 -0.3% -9.8% 58% 42% -8.0%
≤90d 44 -2.6% -11.9% 57% 41% -9.1%
all 44 -2.6% -11.9% 57% 41% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 41% -9.1%
10% -20.3% 39% -17.8%
15% -28.0% 34% -25.7%
20% -35.1% 32% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$26 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses25 / 19
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage32d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $126 −$26 -20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $113 +$12 +10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $85 +$29 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$25 +42%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $29 +$15 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$18 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$10 -25%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $67 +$8 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$15 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$28 +70%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$9 -78%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $28 −$16 -55%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $87 −$87 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $44 +$43 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$23 -92%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$22 -70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$20 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$7 +24%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$35 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $59 −$48 -83%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$14 +53%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $116 +$110 +95%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $64 +$52 +81%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$19 +156%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -1%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $46 −$32 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 03 $31 +$17 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 03 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $15 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 30 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 20 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $100 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $126 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $113 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $114 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $85 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 96¢ $85 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $39 23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $60 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $29 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 34h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $30 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $67 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $39 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $24 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $25 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $103 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $12 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $13 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $28 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $87 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records