Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cc7…2385 other 466 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4,322 (-15%) realized −$3,080 · open −$1,242
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate74%256W / 89L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day52.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$2,957now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 59d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$159
other 30% −$475
politics 10% −$1,107
tech 6% +$80
weather 3% −$64
crypto 3% −$231
sports 3% −$132
culture 1% +$43
finance 1% −$84
economics 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +26.0% +14.0% 72% 28% -8.5%
≤30d 279 +5.3% -4.7% 71% 18% -10.6%
≤90d 345 +3.2% -6.7% 74% 16% -11.5%
all 345 +3.2% -6.7% 74% 16% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 16% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 7% -19.9%
15% -23.7% 3% -27.7%
20% -31.2% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$22 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$2,957
Realized−$3,080
Unrealized−$1,242
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses256 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions188
Markets (closed)345 / 466
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day52.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 188 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Yes $378 $331 −$47 (-12%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $484 $287 −$197 (-41%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes $244 $188 −$56 (-23%)
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Yes $515 $134 −$380 (-74%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes $120 $130 +$10 (+8%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? No $137 $111 −$26 (-19%)
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 14¢ $150 $98 −$52 (-35%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $95 $68 −$27 (-28%)
Will Jim Priest be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 10¢ $64 $54 −$10 (-16%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? No $63 $46 −$17 (-27%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes $35 $45 +$10 (+29%)
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? No $118 $43 −$75 (-64%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes $62 $41 −$21 (-34%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes $37 $41 +$3 (+9%)
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk get full custody of the St. Clair child? No 91¢ 94¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 74¢ 84¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+14%)
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 54¢ 83¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+53%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? No 13¢ 12¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-12%)
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02? No $57 $22 −$35 (-61%)
Will Kanye West visit the UK by June 30? No 94¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$1 (+6%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Zendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Jun 21 $0 +$10 +2611%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 21 $1,661 +$102 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $428 +$22 +5%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $349 −$19 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 21 $211 +$20 +9%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $87 +$2 +2%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $151 −$7 -5%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +18%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $54 +$6 +11%
Another Elon baby by June 30? Jun 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 21 $42 −$7 -18%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $19 $0 -1%
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Travis Kelce retire before next season? Jun 20 $19 $0 +1%
Jacob Elordi announced as next James Bond? Jun 20 $10 +$29 +303%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $17 +$3 +19%
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 20 $78 −$66 -84%
Will Mohammed bin Salman sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 20 $45 +$6 +12%
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July Jun 20 $35 +$7 +19%
Will Haiti be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 20 $278 +$19 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 19 $80 +$8 +10%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,170 Week of June 15 20 Jun 18 $207 +$52 +25%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.4T by June 30? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $75 +$6 +8%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 18 $114 +$29 +25%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 18 $51 +$9 +18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 18 $364 +$19 +5%
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Jun 18 $196 +$11 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 18 $273 +$10 +4%
Will Karianne Lisonbee be the Republican nominee for UT-02? Jun 18 $76 −$32 -42%
Will Lebanon sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 18 $24 −$5 -20%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 18 $125 +$11 +9%
Will United States be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the Jun 18 $45 −$21 -47%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $53 −$7 -13%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $0 $0 +11%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will Francisco Conceição be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $2 $0 +10%
Will Diogo Dalot be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Will Matheus Nunes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 17 $46 +$2 +4%
Will Morgan Rogers be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Trump shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 17 $40 +$9 +22%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $136 +$37 +27%
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $40 +$4 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $60 21m
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $0 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $17 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $22 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $51 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $37 2h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes $2 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $15 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $50 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $56 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $8 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $136 3h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No $94 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $14 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $27 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $19 4h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $10 4h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? SELL Yes $0 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $1 5h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $10 5h
Will Cleveland Browns win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 98¢ $20 5h
Will Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 98¢ $9 5h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $9 5h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $0 5h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY No $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,956.59 · official $2,953.87 (match) · 3500 history records