Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cc3…2430 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$175 (+33%) realized +$175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$56
other 5% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -15.9% -23.9% 38% 35% -16.8%
≤30d 26 -15.9% -23.9% 38% 35% -16.8%
≤90d 26 -15.9% -23.9% 38% 35% -16.8%
all 26 -15.9% -23.9% 38% 35% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.9% 35% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.2% 35% -24.7%
15% -37.8% 27% -32.0%
20% -43.9% 27% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $81 −$81 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $53 +$30 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$65 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$16 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$103 +469%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$4 +60%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$14 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $14 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $22 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $32 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 7h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $21 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records