Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:57:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2C 0x2cc2…c4b3 sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.4% -18.1% 60% 20% -6.3%
≤30d 5 -9.4% -18.1% 60% 20% -6.3%
≤90d 5 -9.4% -18.1% 60% 20% -6.3%
all 5 -9.4% -18.1% 60% 20% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 20% -6.3%
10% -25.9% 0% -15.3%
15% -33.1% 0% -23.5%
20% -39.6% 0% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage3d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Kalyani Bengaluru Blasters Jun 27 $107 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $503 +$41 +8%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Belize vs Brazil Jun 24 $63 −$28 -45%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $63 −$2 -2%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bahamas vs Panama Jun 24 $93 +$16 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Kalyani Bengaluru Blasters SELL Kalyani Bengaluru Blasters 85¢ $85 14m
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Kalyani Bengaluru Blasters BUY Kalyani Bengaluru Blasters 74¢ $75 17m
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Kalyani Bengaluru Blasters SELL Shivamogga Yodhas 30¢ $23 21m
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Kalyani Bengaluru Blasters BUY Shivamogga Yodhas 40¢ $33 25m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 96¢ $87 44m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 97¢ $87 48m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 95¢ $21 51m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 95¢ $60 51m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 94¢ $40 52m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 94¢ $24 52m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 94¢ $11 52m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 80¢ $4 56m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 76¢ $76 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 72¢ $73 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 59¢ $82 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 57¢ $81 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 54¢ $14 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 54¢ $10 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 54¢ $28 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 54¢ $8 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 54¢ $2 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 54¢ $12 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Pakistan 54¢ $12 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 42¢ $69 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 43¢ $2 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 44¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 45¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 46¢ $1 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 46¢ $2 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 39¢ $69 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records