Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2C 0x2cc0…1792 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%13W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$23
14 days+$23
30 days−$1,058
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$220
other 37% +$1,269
politics 14% −$901
culture 2% −$104
finance 2% +$35
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-33.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 50% +16.7%
≤30d 22 -77.0% -79.2% 14% 14% -41.4%
≤90d 23 -71.7% -74.4% 17% 17% -39.0%
all 38 -26.6% -33.6% 34% 34% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.6% 34% -9.8%
10% -39.9% 26% -18.5%
15% -45.7% 18% -26.3%
20% -51.0% 13% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$78 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses13 / 25
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage694d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,219 −$100 -8%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Rams vs. Bears May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump's tie be another color? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 14? May 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 mi May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Mavericks vs. Knicks May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
No airdrop in 2025? May 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get more than 15m views on da May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? May 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Alix Earle & Val Chmerkovskiy win Dancing with the Stars Season 3 May 27 $92 −$92 -100%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 27 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? May 27 $115 −$115 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana May 27 $220 −$132 -60%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? May 27 $99 +$45 +45%
US government shutdown by October 1? May 27 $108 −$108 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $1,389 +$221 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 01 $100 +$45 +45%
Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 24 $135 +$803 +595%
Will there be 14 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $600 +$115 +19%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $50 −$22 -44%
Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 17 $141 +$101 +72%
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Gl Jan 16 $39 +$11 +28%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k? Jan 10 $100 +$119 +119%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k? Jan 10 $814 +$226 +28%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Dec 31 $500 +$175 +35%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 12 $80 +$13 +17%
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on d Sep 29 $2 +$5 +270%
Will Trump say "Peanut" or "Squirrel" during Macon, GA rally? Jan 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Joe Biden make an appearance today? Jan 02 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Jan 02 $186 −$186 -100%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Jan 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 27h
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 25¢ $102 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 43¢ $1,100 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 44¢ $447 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $2 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $1 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $8 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $105 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $48 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $10 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $66 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 42¢ $129 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $215 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $16 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $7 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $2 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $2 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $7 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $4 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $0 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $50 20d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $164 22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $3 22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $7 22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $36 22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $3 22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 43¢ $437 22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $200 22d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 43¢ $437 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records